Bradenton Florida Real Estate News

Monday, December 31, 2007

Bradenton Prices Moving Upward


Although our Bradenton - Sarasota Florida real estate market was declared the seventh worst market in the nation, things are now looking up. Both home sales and home prices moved up for November compared to October. Although sales and prices are below what they were this time in 2006, they seem to be trending upward the last two to three months.

Today's news on Bradenton.com reads,

"While November 2007 homes sales were down 17 percent from November 2006, they were up 5 percent over October's number...

"The median price in Bradenton/Sarasota dropped from November 2006 to November 2007 by 4 percent, but month to month prices are starting to show a small gain.

"The median price of an existing home in Bradenton/Sarasota was $267,700 in November, $3,600 higher than it was just one month before."

Read my prediction about our Bradenton Real Estate Market in my post,

Why We Are Poised for Recovery: People Are Sick and Tired of Being Sick and Tired

(copyright 2007 by Dan Forbes, All Rights Reserved)

Page copy protected against web site content infringement by Copyscape

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Monday, December 10, 2007

Bradenton Florida Real Estate Market Conditions Report


PREMIER TEAM’s

Market Conditions Report Summary

November 2007
(from our study of the Gulf Coast Regional Multiple Listing Service)


Statistics for Single Family Homes

  • Total Listings: 4354 - Up 2.7% over last year. DOWN 6.8% from last month

  • Total Solds: 161 - Down 11.55% year to year, and Up 25.7% from last month . 96.25+% of homes for sale DID NOT SELL in November.

  • Median Sales Price: $180,000 – Up 10.4% from a year ago. Down 24.2% from high of 2005

  • Absorption Rate: 27.0 months. This is how long it would take to sell all of today's listings at the rate homes are selling and if no other homes were listed. Last year: 23.4 months.


  • Average Days on Market: 106 – Up 15.2% over last year

Statistics for Condos

  • Total Condo Listings: 2002 – Up 3.2% over last year. Up 2.1% from last month

  • Total Solds: 57 – Up 35.7% year to year and Up 23.9% over last month.

  • Median Sales Price: $180,000 – Up 10.4% from a year ago. Down 24.2% from high of 2005

  • Absorption Rate: 35.1 months. Last year: 46.2 months.

  • Average Days on Market: 140 – Up 70.0% over last year


Finally, Things Are Looking Up!!!

The dark clouds may be parting in our Bradenton real estate market. There just may be more good news than bad news. We may have reached the tipping point. Could 2008 begin the recovery in our market? It appears hopeful.



  • Inventory is going down. That is significant.

  • Sales are going up. Another signficant number.

  • Days on Market. Well, they increased, which is not good. Look for this to turn around as the market improves.

Here is the detailed Market Conditions Report:
Total%20Market%20Overview%20PDF

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Monday, November 26, 2007

Good News: Our Bradenton Florida Real Estate Market is Only Down 6 Percent





According to numbers just released by the Florida Association of Realtors the median price of a home in Bradenton - Sarasota was $283,800 in the third quater. That's just 6 percent below where it was in the same quarter of 2006. How can that be good news?


Well, in the second quarter of this year home prices were 11.3 percent below what they were in 2006. That means the rate of decline is slowing. That's good news. Maybe our market is starting to recover.

Also noted is that Bradenton - Sarasota was the fourth highest metro area in the state of Florida in number of home sales in the third quarter.

The article stated, "Experts have often surmised that the Bradenton - Sarasota market would be among the first to recover because it is a forerunner during the boom and subsequent correction in the market."

So this article had some good news in it.


(Copyright © 2007 By Dan Forbes, All Rights Reserved.)

Please give me, Dan Forbes, a call if you have questions about our Bradenton, Florida real estate market at 941-746-0505; toll free 877-646-8326. Visit BradentonFloridaRealEstate.Com ; my blog The Real Estate ZOO.

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Thursday, November 08, 2007

Manatee County Sellers Are in Denial



This is our Market Conditions Report for Manatee County Florida.

Our local MLS is flooded with Pre-foreclosure listings, short sales, and foreclosed properties. This is driving our home prices down even further on a DAY BY DAY basis. Our market slide continues its downhill direction. You can almost hear the prices falling.

Every week 10% of the homes on the market have reduced their price. That means in 10 weeks effectively 100% of homes competing with yours have lowered their price. Have you?

What’s curious is that most sellers are in denial. Many are holding out false hopes that things are going to get better next month or next year. Sadly, that's not going to happen. We may be looking at 2010 before recovery comes to the Bradenton - Sarasota market.

We study this market every day and there are no good numbers to report! Believe me, when we start to see a turn around, you will be the first to know. Right now it’s time to move from denial into reality.

We now have over a 3 year of supply of homes on the market overall. In some price ranges we have a 9 year supply of homes on the market! Good grief!

The Total Market Overview Reports below show by price range:

  • Current number of active listings

  • Number of expired listings for the month

  • Total Number of Pending Listings

  • Number of closed sales for the month

  • Absorption Rate

  • Average List Price and Average Sale Price

  • Average Days on Market

  • Market Trend: Improving or Not

  • Compared to 6 months ago

  • Compared to 1 year ago


If you would like to discuss the market with us, please give Dan Forbes or Marie Avery a call at 941-746-0505.

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Friday, October 26, 2007





Today at our meeting of the Bradenton Real Estate Club we talked the Emotional Cycles of the Real Estate Market.

Where are we in our Bradenton - Sarasota real estate market? Somewhere just past "Frightened" was the consensus of the group.

Please give me a call if you have questions abour our Bradenton real estate market. You can reach me, Dan Forbes, at 941-746-0505 or toll free 877-646-8326. Also visit my web site at BradentonFloridaRealEstate.Com and my blog at The Real Estate ZOO.

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Wednesday, October 17, 2007

Bradenton Housing Decline Continues


Bradenton's median sale price of homes sold in September 2007 is 32% below the high of 2005. Sales are down 42.4% from a year ago.

Our Manatee County, Florida real estate market continues to reflect a strong Buyer’s Market with a total 36.8 month absorption rate. This is how long it would take to sell all the homes currently on the market at the rate they are selling today.

The chart above shows the absorption rate by price range. There were no homes sold above $2 million for the month of September.

The Total Market Overview Reports below show by price range:
  • Current number of active listings
  • Number of expired listings for the month
  • Total Number of Pending Listings
  • Number of closed sales for the month
  • Absorption Rate
  • Average List Price and Average Sale Price
  • Average Days on Market
  • Market Trend: Improving or Not
  • Compared to 6 months ago
  • Compared to 1 year ago

Residential Total Market Overview (Click Below)
Sep%2007%20Residential%20Total%20Market%20Overview.pdf

Please give me a call if you have questions abour our Bradenton real estate market. You can reach me, Dan Forbes, at 941-746-0505 or toll free 877-646-8326. Also visit my web site at BradentonFloridaRealEstate.Com and my blog at The Real Estate ZOO.

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Wednesday, September 19, 2007

What does the Feds rate cut mean?



On Tuesday the Feds lowered the Federal Funds rate by half a point. What does it mean?



For Consumers: (who are not buying or selling right now.)




  • Now may be a good time to refinance.

  • ARM (Adjustable Rate Mortgages) rates may become somewhat lower.

  • Home equity credit lines will drop a half point at beginning of next month.



For Buyers:



  • Now is an excellent time to buy.
  • There are deals to be had.
  • Interest rates are good (but don’t expect them to drop significantly overnight because of the Fed Cut - though some loan products did drop a 1/4 point Tuesday.)



For Sellers:



  • The market for Sellers is not out of the woods yet.
  • Real estate prices continue their gradual decline.
  • Inventory remains a concern (it could take more than 2 years to sell what’s on the market now).
  • Sell now and take advantage of being a Buyer on what you buy next.
  • Holding out for a price that doesn’t exist will cost you more in the long run.

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Thursday, August 30, 2007

Manatee County Housing Starting to Recover


This was just released today from the Florida Association of Realtors:


"Popular perceptions about the housing market are wrong, says noted economist Hank Fishkind, who believes the market reached bottom a few months ago. Fishkind looks for trends in real estate statistical releases, and says that things may not be great but there's also no indication that they're getting worse."


In his weekly radio address on WMFE in Orlando, Fishkind said he constantly encounters audiences worried about the housing market and any financial disruptions it could cause.


"The variance between the real economic data and people's perceptions was enormous," Fishkind said. "While home starts have dropped 36 percent from their peak, starts have stabilized over the last six months with no further erosion. Friday's report on new home sales confirms that the market has bottomed out. Sales actually increased 2.7 percent to an annual pace ... and the inventory of new but unsold homes declined."


"Fishkind agrees that sales of existing homes are down, but also looks at the amount of the drop and recent changes. "Importantly, the sales of existing homes were again stable for the seventh month in a row," he says. "While recovery may be some time off, it is clear that Florida's housing markets have bottomed out."


"Fishkind does not believe Florida home prices will decline any further over the next 18 to 36 months, but he does expect them to remain generally flat, depending on where they're located in the state."


'The more overbuilt markets will take longer to recover," Fishkind says. "But fears that prices will drop significantly are unfounded. And so is the pervasive panic. The economy is stronger than the reports about it.'"


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Buyers today need to understand that they have a lot to lose by staying on the sidelines. Those waiting to spot the exact market bottom will lose time, money, and opportunity. Today's buyers market may very well represent the greatest buying opportunity in over 100 years.


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I'm Dan Forbes and I want to be your Realtor and resource for all your Bradenton real estate needs.

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Tuesday, August 28, 2007

Local Home Sales Third in State

Good news!

Our local home sales are on the way up. For the month of July we were THIRD among the state's 20 metro markets.

Inventory is down for the third straight month. I am quoted in an article by the Bradenton Herald today, " 'That really is the first sign that we are bottoming out, when the inventory evens out,' said Dan Forbes, co-owner and broker of Premier Team Inc. in Bradenton."

Read the article here.
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I'm Dan Forbes and I want to be your Realtor and resource for all your Bradenton real estate needs.

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Wednesday, August 15, 2007

Highest-appreciating and Most-depreciating areas

The value of midsize and large homes declined more in the last year than the value of small single-family residences, according to a second-quarter analysis by real estate Web site Zillow.com.

The value of single-family homes smaller than 1,200 square feet fell by just 1 percent, according to Zillow’s report. Meanwhile, values of midsize homes between 1,200 and 1,900 square feet fell an average of 3.1 percent, and homes larger than 1,900 square feet declined 2.8 percent.

Zillow.com also offers a comparison of 66 metropolitan statistical areas on Zillow.com.These findings are culled from that analysis:

The highest-appreciating metropolitan areas (year-over-year):
Grand Junction, Colo. (18.6 percent)
• Corvallis, Ore. (11.2 percent)
• Charlotte-Gastonia-Rock Hill, NC-SC (9.0 percent)
• Eugene-Springfield, Ore. (6.9 percent)
• Spokane, Wash. (6.1 percent)
• Seattle-Tacoma-Bremerton, Wash. (5.3 percent)

Most-depreciating metropolitan areas (year-over-year):
Sarasota-Bradenton, Fla. (-16.4 percent)
• Melbourne-Titusville-Palm Bay, Fla. (-14.3 percent)
• Stockton-Lodi, Calif. (-13.5 percent)
• Charleston-North Charleston, SC (-12.8 percent)
• Daytona Beach, Fla. (-12.5 percent)
• Modesto, Calif. (-12.4 percent)

Most expensive metropolitan areas:
San Francisco-Oakland-San Jose, Calif. ($685,653)
• Honolulu, Hawaii ($632,270)
• San Luis Obispo-Atascadero-Paso Robles, Calif. ($537,722)
• Los Angeles-Riverside-Orange County, Calif. ($525,175)
• San Diego, Calif. ($505,334)
• New York-Northern New Jersey-Long Island ($445,435)

Least expensive metropolitan areas:
Jackson, Tenn. ($91,563)
• Greenville-Spartanburg-Anderson, SC ($101,178)
• Tulsa, Okla. ($102,876)
• Dayton-Springfield, Ohio ($108,121)
• Rockford, Ill. ($116,475)
• Columbia, SC ($116,865)

Source: Zillow

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Wednesday, August 08, 2007

Top Ten Reasons to Buy Bradenton, Florida Real Estate

When is the best time to buy real estate? When it is a buyer’s market, right? So, what are you waiting for? Our Bradenton real estate market is a ripe opportunity for investing in real estate or buying your dream home.As I sat down to write this article I thought I’d write about the Top Ten Reasons to Buy Bradenton Real Estate. These thoughts are coming to me as I type:

1. Bradenton has a wonderful, desirable location. Bradenton is located in Manatee County which is between Sarasota and Tampa on Florida’s West coast. The largest city in the county is Bradenton, but the name Bradenton is used for most of the unincorporated area of the county as well. Other cites include Palmetto, Ellenton, Parrish, Bradenton Beach, Holmes Beach, and Anna Maria. Bradenton offers easy access to all of central Florida, including Orlando.The Manatee River runs through the county and provides easy access to the Gulf of Mexico. Boating, fishing, and water sports are great area attractions. Or maybe, you’d prefer relaxing on some of the best beaches in Florida.

2. Bradenton has a huge supply of inventory, but it seems to have topped out. Excess inventory is what drives prices down, but just as importantly, it gives you plenty of choices. Just two years ago if you could find five homes in your price range, you were lucky. Now you can select from among hundreds of homes. Better selection equals a better purchase.Now that our inventory is beginning to shrink, it may signal that the bottom has already occurred. Buy now before the seller’s market returns.

3. Bradenton prices are down. Our residential prices are down over 20 percent from the high of 2005. This is unprecedented and represents a great buying opportunity. If you were to tell someone that you could buy real estate at a 20 percent discount, they would call you a genius. Opportunities like this don’t last long.

4. Interest rates are still near historical lows. Ask anyone in the business where interest rates are going to go over the next few years. Everyone believes that rates will go up. For every increase in interest rate, thousands of buyers are shut out of the market. Your dollars will go farther today than they will a year from now. Taking advantage of today’s rates is like buying your house at a discount. Financing guidelines are tightening on a daily basis. This is a sure sign that rate hikes are coming.

5. In Bradenton it is still possible to buy with little to zero down. 100% financing has all but disappeared. However, it is still available for many. Then there are other options like 97% percent, or 95% financing. On top of that, today’s sellers are willing to pay some or all of the buyer’s closing costs. We have seen many buyers get into the home of their dreams with virtually no money out of pocket.

6. The baby boomers are coming to Bradenton. A few short years ago Money magazine named Bradenton, Florida as one of the top five places to retire. Well, it’s an even better area today than it was five years ago. Our proximity to the white, sandy beaches of the Gulf of Mexico is quite attractive, since we are a coastal county. We are also located near two major airports (Tampa and Sarasota). The Interstate highway system provides great access to Manatee, Sarasota, Pinellas, and Hillsborough Counties. As long as it keeps snowing up North the baby boomers will keep coming here. Our area is just a fantastic place to live, work, and play.

7. Bradenton sellers are motivated to sell. Some homes have been on the market for over a year. They have reduced their price again, again, and again. Some are desperate and most are quite motivated. Having practiced real estate for thirteen years in Bradenton, I have never seen sellers so motivated. Now is the time to get a great deal!

8. Bradenton’s foreclosures and short sale market is a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity. Since many speculators overextended themselves in 2005 our foreclosure and short sale rate has skyrocketed. If you are an investor, this represents a tremendous buying opportunity. Your strategy should be to buy at a discount, hold for a few years, and then sell for a big profit. Put a tenant in the property and allow them to pay down your mortgage for an even greater profit. If you are buying a home to live in, the advantage is even greater.

9. New home builders in Bradenton are offering unprecedented incentives. Buy a new home, get a free pool. Need help with financing? No problem. One builder is offering to hold a 15 %t second mortgage for five years, no interest, no payments. Others are offering $10,000 or more towards closing costs. All of this is on top of the $50,000 to $100,000 price reductions. Your Realtor will know where the best deals are.

10. The Bradenton real estate market is poised for a quick rebound. It is predicted that our market will experience what’s called a “V” recovery. It was quick to go down and it will be quick to recover. If you are the type of buyer waiting to find the bottom you have probably already missed it. Even if you believe the bottom is still to come, buying today locks in your discount during a historical opportunity. Waiting now may only mean paying more in the future.

Well, there you have it. Here are my thoughts on the Top Ten Reasons to Buy Bradenton Real Estate. Actually, it was quite easy to come up with these ten reasons. There are probably ten more I could have written about.

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Monday, July 30, 2007

“My home isn’t selling. Is it the market?” No, No, No!

It’s not the market that is keeping your home from selling, it’s the price. When the price reaches the point that a buyer is willing to buy, you have then discovered the true market value of your home.

I recently wrote an article to answer the question, “My home isn’t selling; is it my price or my Realtor?” The comments and responses were interesting. One agent wrote that “maybe it’s neither; maybe it’s just the market.”

Let’s think about that. Imagine that your home is listed. It’s in perfect condition and has a great location. Your Realtor is working hard and is using a proven marketing strategy that he or she has used to sell many other homes. The problem is, your home still isn’t selling.

You don’t think it’s the price. Your Realtor doesn’t think it’s the price. In fact, the Realtor states, “It’s just the market; hardly anything is selling in this market.”

I will be so bold as to say that this kind of thinking reflects a misunderstanding of what “the market” really is.

We talk about a “seller’s market” or a “buyer’s market,” but what do we really mean? And, if a home isn’t selling, can it be the market’s fault? A seller’s market simply means there are more buyers than sellers and that those conditions favor the seller. A buyer’s market occurs when there are more sellers than buyers and those conditions favor the buyer.

The market always is what the market is. What a home sells for is the market value of that home. And, we only know the true market value of a home when it sells. Market value is what a buyer is willing to pay. It is no more or no less. This is true in either a seller’s market or a buyer’s market.

Any home will sell today! Let me prove it. Imagine your home is on the market. It’s in the Multiple Listing Service and thereby shared with hundreds and perhaps thousands of agents. It’s also exposed to the public. Let’s suppose you put a price of one dollar ($1.00) on the home. How long do you think it would take for an offer to materialize? It would probably take only minutes or hours.

I’m not suggesting that one dollar is the market value of the home. That’s just an extreme way to show you that price is determined by the market. The true market value of your home is somewhere between one dollar and the price you are asking today.

It’s not the market that is keeping your home from selling, it’s the price. When the price reaches the point that a buyer is willing to buy, you have then discovered the true market value.

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Monday, July 23, 2007

Is there any good news in our Bradenton real estate market?


A prospect wrote to me by email today, "It would be nice to see some positive news about the real estate market in Florida."


I gave him a call to let him know there's no good news yet. Most are growing weary with the bad news.


Then I read this today: "The U.S. housing market isn’t going to get any better this year, says David Berson, vice president and chief economist at Fannie Mae.


"Berson expects new and existing home sales to decline by 10.2 percent in 2007 to the lowest level since 2002. Single-family starts are expected to fall 21.7 percent....He predicts that 2006 and 2007 will together show the largest drop in sales since the housing slowdown of 1989-1991.


"Berson says it will take until 2008 before unsold inventories have fallen enough to relieve downward pressure on house prices. Source: Reuters News (07/18/2007)"
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I'm Dan Forbes and I want to be your Realtor and resource for all your Bradenton Real Estate needs.

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Thursday, July 19, 2007

Home Prices Continue to Fall in Bradenton - Sarasota


I just found this on MSN real estate


"A new report projects home-price declines for the next two years. The riskiest markets are in Florida, California, Nevada and Arizona. Here's how to ride out the hard times.


"As if the housing market isn't bleak enough. The Standard & Poors' Case-Shiller Home Price Index reported in late June that home prices dropped more in the first quarter of this year than at any other quarter in the last 17 years. Now, a report from PMI Mortgage Insurance says home values could decline across much of the country for at least two more years.


"There's a 34.6% chance on average that home prices will drop in the nation's top 50 markets in the next couple of years, according to PMI Mortgage Insurance's new U.S. Market Risk Index, which heavily factors in recent price volatility.


"How far and how fast prices actually fall remains to be seen. But the report underscores the fact that today's market is decidedly different from that of recent years, when homeowners could bank on rapid home-value appreciation."


This is the news we are sharing with our sellers today. If you think the price on your home is below your comfort level today, just wait until next year.


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I'm Dan Forbes and I want to be your Realtor and resource for all your Bradenton Real Estate Needs

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Monday, July 09, 2007

When Will the Bradenton - Sarasota Market Hit Bottom?

When real estate hits the bottom will you know it?

Mixed numbers and contrary reports cause us to wonder just when we’ll hit the bottom in the Bradenton – Sarasota market. Inventory decreased for the month of June and that’s a good sign. However, sale numbers and prices continue to fall. That’s a bad sign. Bottoms can only be seen in the rear view mirror, so keep looking.

What signs will confirm the bottom of the market?. Mixed numbers like the ones we see may suggest the bottom is yet to arrive. The signs that follow the market bottom are: (1) Reducing inventory, (2) Increasing sales, (3) Increasing prices, (4) Fewer days on market.

It’s the showing activity...oh, wise one
We have sold over 1,000 homes/condos over the years and here’s what we know: If you get no showings, it means that even agents aren’t excited about your price. If you get few showings and no repeat showings, buyers aren’t excited. When you get multiple showings and buyers coming back for a 2nd look, you should sell soon, but if buyers seem to cool off, it’s the market moving away from you. Make a price change quickly. You should have an offer in 10-12 showings. If not, evalute the condition of your home and the price.

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Monday, July 02, 2007

Where's the bottom?

Today's News from the Florida Association of Realtors has us wondering just where the housing market is heading.

The release stated: "Like a mirage in the desert, the bottom of the housing slump seems to fade in and out of sight as the year progresses. Home sales jump, and there – you think you can make it out in the distance. Home sales fall, and it’s lost in the haze.

“There’s a lot of competition trying to figure out when things are going to bottom,” says Morningstar (MORN) analyst Eric Landry. “But it’s unlikely that you’re going to figure that out before any one else does.”

“Write it off: ‘07 is going to be a bad year,” Landry says. “It [the housing bottom] could be a 2008 event, it could be a 2009 event.”

Say it isn't so!!

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Wednesday, June 20, 2007

Bottom, Bottom, Where's the Bottom?

We keep looking for the bottom of our Bradenton - Sarasota, real estate market. The signs are a bit confusing. Sales are up, that's good. However, inventory is also up, that's bad. Prices continue to fall.

Yesterday, the Florida Association of Realtors noted a University of Florida quarterly analysis showing some disturbing news about our Florida housing recovery:

Florida’s housing market, thought to be stabilizing earlier this year, deteriorated in the latest quarterly survey conducted by the University of Florida (UF), a situation likely brought on by uneasiness about lending practices, insurance rates and the state’s property tax structure, according to UF analysts.

“Like the graying skies over the state tainted by drought-driven brush fires, the mood for Florida real estate has grown more somber since January,” says Wayne Archer, director of UF’s Bergstrom Center for Real Estate Studies.

“Perhaps the implications of the subprime ‘meltdown’ are creating a disquieting haze; perhaps anxiety over property taxes and high insurance rates are shrouding Florida’s otherwise sunny outlook. In any case, there are few signs of improvement.”

Contiue reading here:
http://www.floridarealtors.org/NewsAndEvents/n1-061907.cfm

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Bradenton Real Estate
Dan Forbes

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Wednesday, June 13, 2007

Bradenton - Sarasota Real Estate Market Conditions

PREMIER TEAM’s
Market Conditions Report Summary
May 2007
(from our study of the Gulf Coast Regional Multiple Listing Service)

Statistics for Single Family Homes
  • Total Listings: 4739 - Up 20.38% over last year. Up 6.02% from last month
  • Total Solds: 237 - Down 14.75% year to year, but Up 15.05% from last month . 95% of homes for sale DID NOT SELL in May. Sales are rising: Jan. 115; Feb. 167; Mar. 202; Apr. 206; May 237
  • Median Sales Price: $ 285,000 – Down 5.16% from last year and Down 18.55% from 2005 high
  • Absorption Rate: 10.2 months. This is how long it would take to sell all of today's listings at the rate homes are selling and if no other homes were listed. Last year: 7.5 months.
  • Average Days on Market: 104 - Up 44.4% over last year

Statistics for Condos

  • Total Condo Listings: 2104 – Up 33.42% over last year. Down 3.93% from last month
  • Total Solds: 77 – Down 23% year to year and Down 3.93% over last month.
  • Median Sales Price: $185,000 – Down 7.96% from a year ago.
  • Absorption Rate: 14.2 months. Last year: 10.0 months.
  • Average Days on Market: 103 – Up 58.4% over last year

Summary: Bottom, Bottom, Where’s the Bottom
Mixed numbers and contrary reports cause us to wonder just where the market bottom is. Unfortunately, inventory continues to rise overall. That’s a bad sign. Prices also, continue to fall. The good news is that sales are slowly increasing. In reality, bottoms can only be determined after you’ve hit them.


What signs will confirm the bottom of the market? Mixed numbers like these may suggest the bottom is here now. The signs that follow the market bottom are: (1) Reducing inventory, (2) Increasing sales, (3) Increasing prices, (4) Fewer days on market.


It’s the showing activity. We have sold over 1,000 homes/condos over the years and here’s what we know: If you get no showings, it means that even agents aren’t excited about your price. If you get few showings and no repeat showings, buyers aren’t excited. When you get multiple showings and buyers coming back for a 2nd look, you should sell soon, but if buyers seem to cool off, it’s the market moving away from you. Make a price change quickly. You should have an offer in 10-12 showings. If not, evalute the condition of your home and the price.

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Friday, June 01, 2007

Manatee - Sarasota real estate recovery underway!

It's official the real estate recovery for our Manatee - Sarasota area is underway.

1. Yesterday I attended a local real estate technology and business expo in which a Certified Financial Advisor presented "10 signs the real estate market has bottomed". He specifically addressed the Manatee - Sarasota market.

2. Today's local paper ran this headline on the top of page one, "Manatee's property values increase 11 percent". You can read the article here:http://www.bradenton.com/280/story/63059.html

3. Today's business section ran this article: "Realty expert: Recovery comingEconomist confident 'Florida will have the highest price growth in the long term".

"People should not bet against this region, the Bradenton-Sarasota-Punta Gorda area," said Lawrence Yun, senior economist for the National Association of Realtors."There is really no correction or recession in terms of home value," Yun said. "Florida will have the highest price growth in the long term."

Read the article here: http://www.bradenton.com/business/story/62867.html

4. Released yesterday was this: "Florida economist predicts housing ready to recover".

A top Florida economist has declared the housing slump a done deal. “It will take another 18 months or so before closing volumes reach more normal levels, but the worst is behind us,” says Hank Fishkind.Read it here: http://www.floridarealtors.org/NewsAndEvents/n2-053107.cfm

5. Our preliminary look at the MLS statistics for May shows more absorption of inventory. This is a positive trend. For 3 months in a row the number of homes for sale has decreased. This is a positive sign of recovery.

Summary: NOW is the time to buy!!

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Friday, May 25, 2007

150 steps ahead....12 steps back

From the National Association of Realtors

"Okay, so the median price of an existing home is expected to fall 1 percent this year -- hardly a "correction" when prices have risen more than 50 percent over the last five years. Even the relatively large price decline of 12 percent in Sarasota, Fla., this year isn't much of a "correction" when you consider that it comes on the heels of a 150 percent price increase during the boom. Let's see, that is 150 steps forward and 12 steps backwards...."

Lawrence Yun, NAR Senior Economist

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Thursday, May 17, 2007

Bradenton - Sarasota home sales surge

Bradenton-Sarasota home sales surge
By MELISSA FOLLOWELL

MANATEE --The Bradenton-Sarasota housing market was the only one in Florida to experience an increase in sales in the first quarter of the year, compared to the same quarter last year.

Existing home sales were up 6 percent, according to numbers released by the Florida Association of Realtors on Tuesday. The median price slid 12 percent to a median of $290,500, good news for buyers.

During the same quarter last year, the median price was $331,100.

In contrast, sales in neighboring markets like Tampa-St. Petersburg were down 37 percent; Fort Myers was down 35 percent; and Naples was down 30 percent. Statewide, sales were down 26 percent.

"It's all relative because our sales were so dismal, the only direction they could go was up," said Dan Forbes, co-owner and broker of Premier Team Inc. in Bradenton.

Re/Max Gulfstream's Ken Miller was a little leery about calling Tuesday's figures the first step toward full recovery.

"No one can speak from experience about where we are now, but I don't think you're going to see any big change until mid-2008," Miller said.

He agreed the increase in sales was a good thing but says coming off an unprecedented boom makes it even more difficult than usual to predict the path the market will take.

Locally, condos appreciated by 15 percent in the first quarter, with the median price at $312,600.

Although local condo prices inched upward, those looking to buy a home under $200,000 have a chance now that was unheard of just a year ago, said May Aston, president of the Manatee Association of Realtors.

"There are quite a few decent homes under $200,000. Last year, if someone were to ask me for a home under $200,000, I couldn't have found one," Aston said.

Forbes thinks there is an underlying demand growing, but many people are waiting to see what the Legislature does about property taxes before making a move.

"I think we are accumulating some pent-up buyer demand," Forbes said. "I think there are a lot of folks that would like to move that are waiting to see what happens with property taxes."

Miller said it's for that reason many who want to make lateral moves are holding back. A significant part of any real estate market are families moving upward to larger homes, but that market remains quite a bit quieter with insurance and property taxes up in the air.

Those who are buying are looking for deals, experts said.

"We are definitely seeing positive numbers," Forbes said. "For the true, seasoned investor, it doesn't matter if it's a buyer or seller's market, they are looking."

And what are they looking for? "Steep discounts," Forbes said.

Miller agreed. He finds that buyers and sellers are at a standoff, with buyers expecting sellers to cut prices tremendously and sellers expecting to get unrealistic amounts of money in the current market situation.

"If the home was purchased before 2004, they are a little more realistic when it comes to listing price," Miller said.

During the height of the real estate boom, there was only a 1.7-month supply of homes on the market, but as speculators and other sellers scurried to get out of their homes, that number skyrocketed to more than a 10-month supply.

That tide is finally turning, Forbes said. Currently, there is a 9.7-month supply of homes and with more than 500 sales pending in Manatee County, that supply is expected to decline further.

In an ideal market, there is a two- to three-month supply of homes on the market.

"I think because of our location, we will definitely be one of the first markets to bounce back," Aston said.

Market analysts said that home prices are staying even with the rate of inflation.
"We see this as a benchmark," said Wayne Archer, director of the University of Florida's Bergstrom Center for Real Estate Studies, in a statement accompanying Tuesday's figures from the Florida Association of Realtors.

"When prices maintain the same level as inflation, then we're probably in some kind of equilibrium. It indicates the market is stabilizing."

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Bradenton Real Estate

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Wednesday, May 09, 2007

Home-Price forecast: First ever decline

CNNMoney.com noted the National Association of Realtor's news release indicating the decline in home prices.

"National Association of Realtors cuts 2007 forecast; would mark first drop since it began tracking values in 1968."

"Home prices are expected to finish down for the year, the National Association of Realtors (NAR) said Tuesday, which would mark the first drop since the group started tracking values in 1968.

"NAR projects a 1 percent decline in the median price of an existing single-family home, to $219,800. The group, in a forecast made a month ago, had previously been expecting a 0.7 percent decline. Prior to that, it had expected a gain of 1.2 percent. "

Read the article here: http://tinyurl.com/35a253

Our Bradenton - Sarasota markets suffered an 18% decline in 2006 and that is continuing into 2007.

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Bradenton Real Estate

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Thursday, April 26, 2007

Home sales jump 16%




Today's Bradenton Herald began a story about increasing home sales this way...



"MANATEE --While most of the nation saw significant drops in the number of homes sold in March compared to a year ago, sales in Bradenton-Sarasota increased 16 percent.The National Association of Realtors reported that unseasonably bad winter weather and the tightening purse strings of banks and other lenders throughout the country further hindered a market many hoped was on its way to recovery.



"Statewide, the market saw a 28 percent drop in the number of single-family home sales, and the median price dropped 4 percent. Locally, single-family home prices fell 9 percent to $291,500, but Manatee-Sarasota proved to be one of only two markets in the state that experienced an increase in sales compared to March 2006."



My own study of the Gulf Coast Multiple Listing Service which serves primarily the Bradenton ( Manatee ) , Florida market shows a 20.9% increase in sales in March over February for residential properties. Condo sales increase 32.5%.



That's good news and further evidence that our local real estate market has bottomed out and better days are ahead.


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Bradenton Real Estate

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Thursday, April 12, 2007

Home Prices to be flat this year

David Lereah, NAR’s chief economist says, "Existing-home sales are likely to total 6.34 million in 2007 and 6.52 million next year, in contrast with 6.48 million in 2006. New-home sales are seen at 904,000 this year and 935,000 in 2008, below the 1.05 million last year. Housing starts are estimated at 1.47 million in 2007 and 1.55 million next year, down from 1.80 million units in 2006.

“As home sales moderate, overall home prices will be essentially flat this year,” Lereah says.

“The good news is that inventories remain well below the levels experienced during the last housing downturn in the early 1990s, and supplies are close to balance in many areas.”

The national median existing-home price will probably slip 0.7 percent to $220,300 in 2007, following a 1.0 percent rise last year. The median new-home price is projected to increase 0.4 percent to $246,200 this year, after gaining 1.8 percent in 2006. Modest growth is expected next year, with existing-home prices increasing 1.6 percent and new-home prices rising 2.0 percent.

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Bradenton Real Estate

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Friday, April 06, 2007

Bradenton - Sarasota Real Estate Market Has Hit Bottom

The Bradenton - Sarasota, Florida real estate market has hit bottom, and will stay there for the next 12-18 months and then begin a 3-4 percent annual growth climb.

At least that's the word from Hank Fishind a well respected Florida economist. And that's good news for our Bradenton Real Estate Market. Having seen a median price decline of approximately 22% since the high of 2005, it seems that we have finally hit bottom.

Personally, our real estate team is having a strong 2007 as we see buyers entering the market to take advantage of the price declines. Low interest rates and a great inventory selection makes this a perfect time to buy.

To our listing clients we reccommend the following:
1. Be sure you are priced competitively, because homes ARE selling. Buyers are buying the "obvious best value." What's that mean? It means your home should be the BEST priced home in the area, hands down.

2. Clean, paint, install new carpet. Do everything you can to make your home show perfectly and be "move in" ready. Buyers have 100's of homes to compare to yours, make sure yours shows the BEST.

3. When you receive an offer, be courteous, grateful, and negotiate it to it's highest, then seriously consider executing it. Many seller's have been on the market a year or more with NO offer. Don't lose an interested buyer.

To our buyer clients we say:
1. Have a clear picture of the home you want to buy. With so many homes on the market it's easy to get confused by looking at 20 homes or more. Narrow down your criteria to a short list of homes to visit.

2. Make your offer attractive by having a pre-qualification letter in hand from your lender. We can help you with that. There's no cost or obligation to that particular lender.

3. Be sure that your are working with a Realtor who is a Certified Residential Specialist or an Accredited Buyers Representative. These designations (which we hold) give you the assurance that you are working with a highly trained professional.

Fishkind's presentation yesterday in Manatee County was covered by our local paper. You can read the full story here...
http://www.bradenton.com/mld/bradenton/news/local/17035333.htm

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Bradenton Real Estate

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Saturday, March 24, 2007

Bradenton - Sarasota Home Sales Up 5%


From today's Bradenton Herald...

"In February, the consumer appetite for buying single-family homes and condos in the Bradenton-Sarasota market rose 5 percent from a year earlier.

"While that may sound like only a modest gain, Bradenton-Sarasota outperformed every other market in Florida, except one. Statewide, the sales of existing homes were down 23 percent, according to the Florida Association of Realtors.

"Only Panama City, where sales were up 21 percent, outperformed Bradenton-Sarasota.Statewide, sale prices continued to slide from precipitous heights a year ago.

"The median price of a single-family home in Bradenton-Sarasota fell 9 percent compared to last year, resting at $294,500.

"That said, many market observers were saying the market has gone as low as it is going to, and now is a time to buy.

"If you're thinking of buying a house, there's probably not much to be gained by holding out at this point," said Wayne Archer, director of the University of Florida's Bergstrom Center for Real Estate Studies. "It doesn't look like prices are going to fall anymore."
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We have certainly noticed more buyers in the market since the beginning of the year. We have sold 25 homes this year!! Perhaps this is the beginning of stabilization in our Bradenton - Sarasota market.

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Bradenton Real Estate

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Tuesday, February 13, 2007

Which way are home prices going?

According to the latest Experian-Gallup Personal Credit IndexSM survey, nearly half of all consumers (47 percent) say they think a housing bubble and collapse of housing prices is very likely (16 percent) or somewhat likely (31 percent) in their local residential real-estate market within the next three years. This is up from the 37 percent of Americans who felt this way in May 2005 and the 42 percent voicing this opinion in April 2006.

Fears of a potential housing price collapse are greatest in the West (52 percent) and the East (49 percent) but lower in the Midwest (41 percent) and the South (44 percent). Consumers with annual household incomes of $75,000 or more are somewhat less fearful of a collapse in housing prices (42 percent) than are those with incomes of $40,000 a year but less than $75,000 a year (50 percent) or those making less than $40,000 a year (48 percent). Renters think that such a drop in housing prices is more likely (57 percent) than do homeowners (43 percent).

The BIG question I hear all the time is, "What do you think is going to happen with home prices in the Bradenton - Sarasota market?" I think we are struggling to reach the beginning of the end of the market decline. Some signs point to stabilization (pending sales are up, median price is up). Other signs say we have more decline ahead (increasing inventory, decreasing sales).

This is a market struggling to stabilize. Next, we may have 12-18 months of a flat market, followed by more sustainable appreciation.

Here it is:
2007 - More price declines
2008 - Flat
2009 - Growth returns

What do you think?
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Bradenton Real Estate

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Friday, February 09, 2007

5 Markets of Home Price Increases and Declines

Home prices are declining year over year for the first time in the last 10 years, according to data from online real estate information site Zillow.com

Zillow.com estimates that in the fourth quarter of 2006, prices declined nationwide by 0.48 percent compared with the fourth quarter of last year. Zillow.com measured home value changes in 75 metro areas. Here are some of the site’s findings.

Five metropolitan areas where prices have increased the most in the last year:
1. Lakeland-Winter Haven, Fla.: 25.88 percent
2. Yuma, Ariz.: 25.66 percent
3. Myrtle Beach, S.C.: 21.24 percent
4. Flagstaff, Ariz.: 19.02 percent
5. Ocala, Fla.: 17.56 percent

Five metropolitan areas where prices have fallen the most in the last year:
1. Panama City, Fla.: -11.84 percent
2. San Luis Obispo-Atascadero-Paso Robles, Calif.: -11.35 percent
3. Punta Gorda, Fla.: -9.23 percent
4. Sarasota-Bradenton, Fla.: -8.99
5. Greenville-Spartanburg-Anderson, S.C.: -8.73

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Wednesday, February 07, 2007

Market Conditions Report - Jan 2007

Premier Team’s
Market Conditions Report Summary – Jan 07

Bradenton - Sarasota , Florida Real Estate Market
(from our study of the Gulf Coast Regional Multiple Listing Service)

Statistics for Single Family Homes:
Total Single Family Home Listings: 4358 - Up 49% over last year. Up 6.3% from last month!

Total Solds: 115 - Down 38% year to year . 97.4% of homes for sale DID NOT SELL in January.

Median Sales Price: $279,000 – Down 11.7% from last year and down 20.2% from 2005 high

Absorption Rate: 10.3 months. This is how long it would take to sell all of today's listings at the rate homes are selling and if no other homes were listed.

Average Days on Market: 100 - Up 96% over last year

Statistics for Condos:
Total Condo Listings: 2148 – Up 88.1% over last year.

Total Solds: 33 – Down 46% year to year

Median Sales Price: $235,000 –

Absorption Rate: 13.7 months – A slight decrease.

Average Days on Market: 101 – Up 98%

Summary: Our Market is STABILIZING (we hope)!
The signs of market stabilization are wishy washy. What has been evident for the rest of the state is struggling to take hold here in the Manatee – Sarasota market. Last month’s decrease in total inventory was strong reversed with a 6.3% increase in the number of homes for sale. One postive sign is that the absorption rate (supply and demand) dropped from an 11 month supply of listings to a 10.3 month supply. That happened because of the strong increase in pending sales (a positive sign).

97.4 % of the homes for sale DID NOT SELL in January. If you are serious about selling you MUST price your home competitively!!

The condo market had a slight improvement in the absorption rate and the number of pending sales was up. However, total inventory continued to rise. There no signs of stabilization yet in the condo market.

Prices may at best remain flat in the coming months, perhaps through 2008. 2009 should bring price gains as population growth continues in the Bradenton – Sarasota area.

As we hit the bottom of the current real estate cycle, this is a great time to buy. Don’t make the mistake of looking back a few years from now and regretting that you failed to take action!

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Thursday, January 25, 2007

Are you selling a vacant home?

Vacant homes may drive prices down even further.

As the number of homes available for sale goes up, it's no surprise that more homes are vacant - more than 30 percent during the third quarter of 2006 compared to a year earlier or 1.9 million homes, according to the U.S. Census Bureau shows. That's about half of all single-family
homes on the market, says Michael Carliner, vice president of economics for NAHB.

Sellers facing this dilemma are dropping prices in an attempt to encourage sales. ''If buyers are waiting longer, then an increasing number of homes become vacant, which means sellers
become desperate and prices fall further. That's where we are in the cycle,'' says Anirban Basu, an economist who is chairman and chief executive of Sage Policy Group Inc. in Baltimore.

Declining home prices could trigger more defaults on mortgage loans if homeowners
struggling with two mortgages cannot cover the cost of the loan by selling the house, adds Celia Chen, director of housing economics for Moody's Economy.com.

Locally in our Bradenton market, 22% of single family homes on the market are vacant and 28% of the condos for sale are vacant.

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Monday, January 15, 2007

Why now is a great time to buy real estate

The real estate market experiences cycles of highs and lows. The typical cycle may take 5-7 years. Values begin to rise, sometimes quite rapidly, then they level off or decline, then they rise again. But they almost never decline to the level they were before the rise began.

Today’s market is what’s called a buyer’s market. It means simply that there are more sellers in the market than buyers. Buyers have the advantage.

People tend to buy at the wrong time. When the market is hot and prices are rising people are excited about the possibility of making money. They jump into the market and buy. This works out fine for a lot of people, except for those who buy at the top of the cycle. When prices begin to fall, those who bought at the top may find that it’s impossible to sell even at the same price which they purchased.

When the market declines some people are fearful of buying. But that’s exactly the right time to buy. Why? Because real estate always comes back!

Buy in bad times, sell in good times. That’s the way to real estate success.

Why is today’s buyer’s market a good time to buy? Here are some good reasons:

1. Prices are lower. In the $500,000 - $600,000 price range it’s not unusual to find that prices have dropped by $100,000 or more. In the $200,000 and below price range prices have also fallen. If you thought buying something for $200,000 was a good deal 2 years ago, then why isn’t it a good deal at $150,000 today? Which is a better time to buy, when prices are high or when prices are low?

2. Sellers are anxious or even desperate. They are more likely to consider low offers. They are more flexible in price and terms. Some haven’t had an offer in months. Your offer may be the only one they’ve had. Some sellers absolutely must sell. This is where you’ll find a bargain.

3. Zero cash deals are easier to find. Why is a zero cash deal better? It increases your cash on cash return and your return on investment. It involves less risk. It frees up your money which can be used to make other deals. It’s easier to find seller financing in a buyer’s market. The seller may finance your down payment.

4. Creative, low cash deals are easier to find. If you are looking to lease option a property or buy subject-to the mortgage when is easier, a seller’s market or a buyer’s market? When the seller is having difficulty selling and receiving no offers at all, your creative offer is more likely to get their attention. It’s easier to find seller’s who just need relief from their monthly payment.

5. It’s easier to find great properties that are sure to rise in value. During a hot seller’s market the best properties sell quickly. Some sell in hours. You may never even know they were for sale. In a buyer’s market for sale signs are everywhere. It’s easier to find a good property in a good location. These properties will rise in value faster than less desirable properties, when the market surges ahead.

6. Low-interest mortgage loans are easy to find. Lenders are looking for borrowers. Mortgage rates are historically low and it’s easy to get a loan.

7. Most of the negative news is behind us. We are seeing positive reports about the real estate market on the national level and now even on our local level. Prices won’t stay low forever. Buyer’s markets come and go. Now is a great time to buy.

by Dan Forbes
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Bradenton Real Estate

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Friday, January 12, 2007

Better days ahead for housing market

After bottoming in the fourth quarter of 2006, existing-home sales are forecast to gradually rise through 2007 and into 2008, while new-home sales should turn around by summer, according to the latest forecast by the NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®.

Annual totals for existing-home sales in 2007 will be comparable to 2006, says David Lereah, NAR’s chief economist.

Soft Landing for Housing

“With all the wild projections by academics, Wall Street analysts, and others in the media, it appears that much of the housing sector is experiencing a soft landing,” Lereah says. “Despite the doomsayers, household wealth will not evaporate and the economy will not go into a recession. If you're in it for the long haul, housing is a sound investment.”

Source: Realtor Magazine Online
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Bradenton Real Estate

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Tuesday, January 09, 2007

December 2006 Market Condtions Report

Premier Team’s Market Conditions Report Summary – Dec 06
(from our study of the Gulf Coast Regional Multiple Listing Service)

Statistics for Single Family Homes:
Total Single Family Home Listings: 4098 - Up 52% over last year. Down 3.2% from last month!
Total Solds: 176 - Down 30% year to year
Median Sales Price: $275,000 – Down 13.8% from last year and down 21.4% from 2005 high
Absorption Rate: 11.0 months. This is how long it would take to sell all of today's listings at the rate homes are selling and if no other homes were listed.Average
Days on Market: 85 - Up 70% over last year

Statistics for Condos:
Total Condo Listings: 1944 – Up 111% over last year.
Total Solds: 51 – Down 43% year to year
Median Sales Price: $240,000 . Up significantly.
Absorption Rate: 14.1 months
Average Days on Market: 93 – Up 158%

Summary: Our Market is STABILIZING!
The signs of market stabilization are finally here. What has been evident for the rest of the state has finally arrived in the Manatee – Sarasota market. For the FIRST time since May 2005 total inventory has shown a decrease. Total listings are down 3.2% from last month and up only 52% over last year.

We also saw a $5,000 increase in December’s median price over November. This is the first month over month increase in 5 months. We are at the bottom of the cycle and should start seeing signs of improvement by mid-year.

The condo market probably has another 6 months of decline before it stabilizes. The absorption rate (supply and demand) has risen to it’s zenith of 14.1 months. Inventory rose slightly.

Prices may remain flat for the next 24 months, but 2009 should bring price gains as population growth continues. Hank Fishkind, of Fishkind and Associates confirms that our market is stabilizing. Orlando will be the strongest, and Miami – Ft. Myers will be the weakest in 2007.

We have seen a definite increase in sales activity for our team. Our November-December sale numbers were our best in 5 years! Personally, we are experiencing an increase in business.

Our Reccomendation: Buyers who have been waiting for the bottom of the market need to act now!

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