How long will this sorry real estate market last?
If you’re finding the local real estate market to be a tough one, just hang on. For five years.
In a recent speech to the Women’s Council of Realtors at Michael’s on East, economist John Tuccillo shared his long-term outlook for the region’s real estate market.
“We all know what has happened in the short term,” said Tuccillo, former chief economist of the National Association of Realtors. “This market has overcorrected after the big boom, and will now rise up to ‘flat.’
Over the next 18 months, we are not looking at a lot of better news within the Sarasota market, but we are not looking at worse news, either. We’ve pretty much absorbed the brunt of what’s going to happen. It’s going to be stagnant through 2007.
“In the longer term, this market has a lot of promise. The economy here is very strong. This is an economy that operates on the basis of people who create jobs, rather than people who absorb jobs. Fifty percent of the adult population of Sarasota County does not work on purpose. Of the other 50 percent, 60 percent are involved in the medical profession, and the other 40 percent are Realtors,” said Tuccillo, bringing howls of laughter from his audience.
“What you get is the picture of a very strong underlying economy,” he said, with long-term population growth in Sarasota and Manatee counties of 16,000 people per year, or 20 percent growth over the next five years.
“We will have to live somewhere, folks.
“We’re in the midst of a pause rather than a recession. It may be a little more lengthy of a pause than you are comfortable with. But over the next five years, this market returns to where it was. The market here in 2011 will very closely resemble the market in 2004.”
In a recent speech to the Women’s Council of Realtors at Michael’s on East, economist John Tuccillo shared his long-term outlook for the region’s real estate market.
“We all know what has happened in the short term,” said Tuccillo, former chief economist of the National Association of Realtors. “This market has overcorrected after the big boom, and will now rise up to ‘flat.’
Over the next 18 months, we are not looking at a lot of better news within the Sarasota market, but we are not looking at worse news, either. We’ve pretty much absorbed the brunt of what’s going to happen. It’s going to be stagnant through 2007.
“In the longer term, this market has a lot of promise. The economy here is very strong. This is an economy that operates on the basis of people who create jobs, rather than people who absorb jobs. Fifty percent of the adult population of Sarasota County does not work on purpose. Of the other 50 percent, 60 percent are involved in the medical profession, and the other 40 percent are Realtors,” said Tuccillo, bringing howls of laughter from his audience.
“What you get is the picture of a very strong underlying economy,” he said, with long-term population growth in Sarasota and Manatee counties of 16,000 people per year, or 20 percent growth over the next five years.
“We will have to live somewhere, folks.
“We’re in the midst of a pause rather than a recession. It may be a little more lengthy of a pause than you are comfortable with. But over the next five years, this market returns to where it was. The market here in 2011 will very closely resemble the market in 2004.”
posted by Dan Forbes at
4:39 PM
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