Realtors say tide turning in homes market; it's becoming a buyers market
MELISSA FOLLOWELL
Herald Staff Writer
MANATEE - The number of homes on the market in Sarasota and Manatee counties more than doubled from October 2004 to October 2005, while sales have fallen slightly. This may be the reprieve that discouraged buyers have been anticipating.
"We've had such a red-hot market, nobody expected it to last indefinitely," said Rod Rawlings, owner/broker of Action Team Real Estate of Bradenton.
Local real estate agents at several agencies, including Michael Saunders & Co. and Coldwell Banker, use a computer program called Trendgraphix to interpret Multiple Listing Service information and to chart local changes in the market.
In October 2004, 776 homes were on the market in Manatee County, 276 sold and 301 sales were pending. October 2005 saw 1,721 homes on the market, 255 sales and 214 pending sales.
"The change is dramatic. It'll be great for buyers and brutal for sellers," said Ruth Lawler, real estate agent for Michael Saunders & Co. Lawler keeps a close eye on the data and was startled by the dramatic changes she has seen since the sales peak in the spring.
"March through June were frantic, and a lot of buyers were priced out of the market," Lawler said.
During those months, there were less than two months inventory. In an ideal market, there would be a two- to three-month supply, Lawler said. From having less available properties than desired to having an overabundance with five months supply available in October has led to a shift, giving buyers the upper hand.
Lawler had a client with several investment properties who asked when he should sell in order to maximize his profit.
"I told him 'you just missed the peak,' " she said.
Barbara Szumski, managing broker of three Coldwell Banker offices, also keeps an eye on the market using Trendgraphix. "The market, quite frankly, made a turn. I don't think it's for the worse," Szumski said.
Even though data shows that the average price per square foot was down $3 to $216 in October, she said a calmer market helps both buyers and sellers make more-educated decisions.
"Before, people were buying before they came down. They had no time for thinking and had to make a decision immediately," Szumski said. "This is a healthier market."
Lawler isn't so sure. She thinks agents need to stay optimistic but keep a watchful eye on what the numbers will do in the next few months.
"What's happening right now will directly effect the next three to six months. This is not going to turn around overnight," Lawler said.
Lawler thinks the cooling trend will continue into November and December, with prices per square foot falling a bit, but hopes the changes will be less dramatic in January.
Joan Olizewski, president of the Manatee Association of Realtors and Wagner Realty sales associate, is optimistic that January will see another upswing in the market.
"It's just really checking itself. We got a little spoiled because things were moving so quickly," Olizewski said.
Other real estate agents are aware of the changes but say that the differences between October 2004 and October 2005 are due to quite a few things and that the national trend may actually have less of an affect on Manatee and Sarasota than in other places.
A recent National Association of Realtors survey showed the Bradenton/Sarasota metropolitan area had several factors that help keep the market strong, including job creation, interest rates, attractiveness and climate.
"Each of these are on the plus side for Manatee County," Rawlings said.
As far as prices evening out and leading to even more jobs in the area, that situation is wait and see.
"It all boils down to what the worker can afford," said Nancy Engle, executive director of the Manatee County Economic Development Council.
Wages in Manatee County are below the national average, which has made the lack of affordable housing a problem. For that reason, Engle said the council focuses not only on growing new jobs here but also the value of those already here.
Rawlings said he has seen a reduction in asking prices but not in overall sales prices.
"Sellers are going to have to be more realistic when pricing their properties," Rawlings said.
When the market kept picking up momentum, many new investors were attracted to the area as a great way to make some money on a sure thing. While there are still some out there, Rawlings and Lawler said, many investors have already flipped their properties and headed out. Investors still in the market will still see a return on their investment, since prices are expected to level out more, not plunge.
"It's a balancing effect, a stabilization," Olizewski said.
New real estate agents may be hurt the most by the frantic market's return to normalcy. Rawlings said it's an easy profession to get into but a hard profession to make a living.
"The pie is only so big, and you can only cut the slices so small," Rawlings said.
MELISSA FOLLOWELL
Herald Staff Writer
MANATEE - The number of homes on the market in Sarasota and Manatee counties more than doubled from October 2004 to October 2005, while sales have fallen slightly. This may be the reprieve that discouraged buyers have been anticipating.
"We've had such a red-hot market, nobody expected it to last indefinitely," said Rod Rawlings, owner/broker of Action Team Real Estate of Bradenton.
Local real estate agents at several agencies, including Michael Saunders & Co. and Coldwell Banker, use a computer program called Trendgraphix to interpret Multiple Listing Service information and to chart local changes in the market.
In October 2004, 776 homes were on the market in Manatee County, 276 sold and 301 sales were pending. October 2005 saw 1,721 homes on the market, 255 sales and 214 pending sales.
"The change is dramatic. It'll be great for buyers and brutal for sellers," said Ruth Lawler, real estate agent for Michael Saunders & Co. Lawler keeps a close eye on the data and was startled by the dramatic changes she has seen since the sales peak in the spring.
"March through June were frantic, and a lot of buyers were priced out of the market," Lawler said.
During those months, there were less than two months inventory. In an ideal market, there would be a two- to three-month supply, Lawler said. From having less available properties than desired to having an overabundance with five months supply available in October has led to a shift, giving buyers the upper hand.
Lawler had a client with several investment properties who asked when he should sell in order to maximize his profit.
"I told him 'you just missed the peak,' " she said.
Barbara Szumski, managing broker of three Coldwell Banker offices, also keeps an eye on the market using Trendgraphix. "The market, quite frankly, made a turn. I don't think it's for the worse," Szumski said.
Even though data shows that the average price per square foot was down $3 to $216 in October, she said a calmer market helps both buyers and sellers make more-educated decisions.
"Before, people were buying before they came down. They had no time for thinking and had to make a decision immediately," Szumski said. "This is a healthier market."
Lawler isn't so sure. She thinks agents need to stay optimistic but keep a watchful eye on what the numbers will do in the next few months.
"What's happening right now will directly effect the next three to six months. This is not going to turn around overnight," Lawler said.
Lawler thinks the cooling trend will continue into November and December, with prices per square foot falling a bit, but hopes the changes will be less dramatic in January.
Joan Olizewski, president of the Manatee Association of Realtors and Wagner Realty sales associate, is optimistic that January will see another upswing in the market.
"It's just really checking itself. We got a little spoiled because things were moving so quickly," Olizewski said.
Other real estate agents are aware of the changes but say that the differences between October 2004 and October 2005 are due to quite a few things and that the national trend may actually have less of an affect on Manatee and Sarasota than in other places.
A recent National Association of Realtors survey showed the Bradenton/Sarasota metropolitan area had several factors that help keep the market strong, including job creation, interest rates, attractiveness and climate.
"Each of these are on the plus side for Manatee County," Rawlings said.
As far as prices evening out and leading to even more jobs in the area, that situation is wait and see.
"It all boils down to what the worker can afford," said Nancy Engle, executive director of the Manatee County Economic Development Council.
Wages in Manatee County are below the national average, which has made the lack of affordable housing a problem. For that reason, Engle said the council focuses not only on growing new jobs here but also the value of those already here.
Rawlings said he has seen a reduction in asking prices but not in overall sales prices.
"Sellers are going to have to be more realistic when pricing their properties," Rawlings said.
When the market kept picking up momentum, many new investors were attracted to the area as a great way to make some money on a sure thing. While there are still some out there, Rawlings and Lawler said, many investors have already flipped their properties and headed out. Investors still in the market will still see a return on their investment, since prices are expected to level out more, not plunge.
"It's a balancing effect, a stabilization," Olizewski said.
New real estate agents may be hurt the most by the frantic market's return to normalcy. Rawlings said it's an easy profession to get into but a hard profession to make a living.
"The pie is only so big, and you can only cut the slices so small," Rawlings said.
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